PETER OBI , THEIR NIGHTMARE To say that former Anambra State governor, Mr Peter Obi, has become a nightmare to sundry political actors in Nigeria is to understate the political reality of this time. By proving to be an unstoppable force that disrupts their comfort, he has become an immitigable source of fear for them, even when they claim otherwise. In his simplicity, he has emerged a mega force in Nigeria’s shifting political landscape, just by overcoming hesitation and acting decisively.
But that came at a cost. He is the bête noire of the political class, hated by those who see him as their nemesis – a hatred borne out of fear, and panic triggered by the sudden realisation that the man they thought was politically caged, had beaten them to their nefarious game. After his phenomenal performance in the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party, a political party he joined barely six months to the polls, he was marked as an existential threat to the political future of those who lost the election, but were declared winners by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
They learnt the hard way. How could a man dismissed beforehand as a political parvenu, pull off such an incredible political upset? So, for their own survival, they had to contain the man they publicly dismiss as a social media phenomenon but dread in their private, quiet moments of reflection. All manner of vitriol was hauled at him in a desperate bid to sully his image. When that failed, some All Progressives Congress (APC) governors declared him a persona-non-grata in their states. What many Nigerians didn’t know, however, was that some public institutions, including universities, afraid of sanctions, also barred him from visiting. But like the proverbial cat with nine lives, Obi’s popularity soared rather than diminish. Frightened, his traducers concluded that the only way to forestall the 2023 electoral shellacking he orchestrated was to ensure his exclusion from the 2027 presidential election by hook or by crook. First, they factionalised the Labour Party, his springboard in 2023, entangling it in dubious legal disputes. When he defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the plots got thicker and more diabolical.
With the Electoral Act 2026 which tightened party membership and candidate nomination rules in a way that makes late defections difficult, if not impossible, for aspirants, and insufferable court cases, Obi’s detractors thought that they had finally cornered him. In the unlikely case that he wins the ADC presidential primaries, the courts will be used to delegitimise the Senator David Mark-led executive of the party and put paid to all political aspirations. But if former Vice President Atiku Abubakar wins as it was programmed since ADC to all intents and purposes is his Special Purpose Entity (SPE), then it becomes impossible for Obi to switch parties thereafter and still be on the ballot in 2027. Section 77 of the Electoral Act redesigned how political parties document their membership. Not only did the Act transform what was previously a general register requirement into a structured, digital, identity-based database, it also shortened the submission timeline of the register by political parties to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to 21 days before primaries. Any party that fails to submit a compliant register within the prescribed time cannot field a candidate.
But those who thought they had finally nailed Obi to the cross of political oblivion didn’t reckon that like Eneke the bird, in popular Igbo folklore, which says that since men have learned to shoot without missing, he has learned to fly without perching, he has mastered the supreme art of not only adapting to new challenges but also evolving strategies for survival in the face of orchestrated dangers. Before the door could be shut, he defected to the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC) and all hell broke loose. Chieftains of the President Bola Tinubu-led government ran berserk, literally, throwing the kitchen sink at Obi. Interestingly, opposition leaders have joined in the villification.
Truth be told, all pretensions to the contrary notwithstanding, the APC-led government is panicking, knowing full well that in a free and fair election, Tinubu will be condemned to a one-term presidency. An Obi-Kwankwaso ticket will be too tough a challenge. The government is grossly lacking in self-confidence. Having tried every trick in the book to stop Obi to no avail, Tinubu has become desperate and a desperate man is a dangerous man. All well-meaning Nigerians must, in one voice, warn that nothing must happen to Obi that compromises his physical wellbeing. He has committed no crime by aspiring to be president of his country. Let Nigerians decide. That is a fundamental dictate of democracy. But I am not unduly worried about Obi. He knows how high the stakes are and has the capacity to withstand the heat in the political kitchen. So far, his resilience is an indication that he is way smarter than most people give him credit, which explains why he is always one step ahead of his enemies.
I am worried because I foresee violence in 2027. Three messages in the past week accentuated my fear, hence this article. First, yesterday, I chanced upon a Facebook post by one Paul Achalla, attributed to Akin Fapunda, said to be a chieftain of Afenifere. It read: “If Peter Obi or Igbos connive with northerners to take power from Tinubu, a southern president, there will be an ethnic tension like that of Rwanda, etc.” This is a dangerous rhetoric. Suffice it to say that it speaks eloquently to the hypocrisy that is Nigeria’s bane. There was no issue when Tinubu, a Yoruba, and southerner, connived with northerners in 2015 to take power from Jonathan, an Ijaw, and a southern president. Then, it was political sagacity, evidence of Tinubu’s genius. But it will be an issue if the same treatment is meted to Tinubu in 2027.
Second, on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, I received a Whatsapp message from one Ikenna Asomba, a self-acclaimed political scientist and a rabid Atiku apologist, who lives in Illinois, USA. A visceral antagonist of Peter Obi, he wrote: “God forbid bad things for our people in Naija. If Bola (Tinubu) gets a second term, the North will never ever trust Ndigbo again for alliance because of what Peter Obi did to their kinsman in 2023 and 2027. They would rather form alliance with the South West and South South in 2031 and going forward. Ndigbo will remain in political wilderness for another 43 years plus, like we have been since 1983.” So, if Tinubu loses the 2027 presidential election and it doesn’t matter who wins, Ndigbo will be held responsible and if Atiku loses, again, it doesn’t matter who wins, Ndigbo will be liable.
Third, in his last week’s article titled, “Who is after Obi, Kwankwaso again?” an accomplished Nigerian journalist and celebrated columnist wrote about Kwankwaso: “Just like he did in 2023 when he used the NNPP to mobilise Kano votes for his surrogate governor, his gambit this time is to use Obi to mobilise Igbo votes in Kano to secure his base. Better a king in Kano than a spare tyre in Abuja.” This is a dangerous rhetoric considering what happened in Lagos in 2023 when Tinubu lost the State and Ndigbo were blamed. The peace-loving Igbos who are contributing their quota to the development of Kano are being set up for violence. Kwankwaso is a political institution in Kano, who does not need the help of Ndigbo to strive.
Nigeria is at a political crossroads. On April 30, 2026, I pointed out here that unlike former President Goodluck Jonathan who famously said his political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian, those on the saddle today have left no one in doubt that their political ambitions, if need be, may well be worth the blood of a million Nigerians. That is what the ‘Tinubu is not Jonathan,’ mantra is all about – an ominous dog whistle. Ethnic baiting, which the president actively promotes, is an ill wind that blows nobody any good. One hopes that Tinubu’s desperation for a second term with or without the people’s consent does not plunge Nigeria into needless bloodshed.
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